INDIANAPOLIS — Republicans scored a major win in the redistricting fight when the Supreme Court reinstated Texas’ newly drawn congressional map on Thursday. But President Donald Trump and his allies are staring down a brewing rebellion in the Indiana Statehouse that could derail their momentum.
The high court decided in an apparent 6-3 vote to block a lower court ruling that deemed the Texas map a likely illegal race-based gerrymander. In doing so, the court’s conservative majority helped Republicans avert a nightmare scenario in which Trump’s redistricting push ultimately cost the party seats leading into the 2026 midterms.
The focus now shifts to Indianapolis, where the president’s allies are heaping pressure on GOP holdouts in the state Senate who are resisting Trump’s demands to draw new lines there that could net Republicans additional congressional seats.
In the state Capitol, as members of the state House debated final passage of a map supporters argue would all but guarantee an entirely Republican congressional delegation — from the current 7-2 split favoring the GOP — Turning Point USA held a sparsely attended rally to pressure Indiana Senate Republicans to do the same, over chants of “9-0.”
“This is now the national make-or-break issue of the year,” said Brett Galaszewski of Turning Point Action, adding that Indiana “is the center of the political universe.” Gov. Mike Braun and Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith both addressed the crowd as they faced cheers, boos and shouts of “cheaters” from counterprotesters.
Earlier Friday, Turning Point Action announced that it, along with Trump-aligned super PACs, would spend in excess of eight figures to primary Indiana Republicans through 2028 if they opposed the new map. And Club for Growth President David McIntosh issued a “FINAL WARNING” to Indiana Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray, writing, “failure to get this done means you and any other opposition will be defeated and removed from office in your next election.”
All of it was designed to amp up pressure on reluctant Indiana Senate Republicans, who are expected to convene Monday to consider the new map. It’s unclear whether pro-redistricting allies have flipped any senators since they stalemated 19-19last month on a vote that was a close proxy for gerrymandering. The map passed the state House easily on Friday.
For now, Republicans have an edge across the six states that have seen a redraw. The GOP has nine more favorable seats across four states — Texas, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina — while Democrats have five more blue-leaning seats in California, and an additional court-ordered likely pickup in Utah.
The fight over the new lines across the country is expected to carry into the new year. Privately, Democrats were not shocked by the Texas ruling, long assuming the conservative Supreme Court was going to allow the Texas map to stand. With the Texas maps in place, Democrats involved in the nationwide battle anticipate they’ll ultimately start the midterm cycle down a handful of seats, but the exact number isn’t clear.
Republicans see another key pickup opportunity in Florida, where party redistricting proponents think they could extract another three to five seats ahead of the midterm elections.
But while the state Legislature officially kicked off the mid-decade battle in the state on Thursday, Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Florida House lawmaker in charge of redistricting are at odds over how quickly to do it. And the state’s prospective redraw faces another roadblock: Florida’s anti-gerrymandering standards, which hold that a new district cannot be drawn for partisan gain.
Democrats, meanwhile, are homing in on Virginia. Five of the state’s 11 House seats are held by Republicans, who were trounced in a November election that bestowed on Virginia a Democratic governor, attorney general and a big Statehouse majority. Democrats there already kicked off a surprise redraw process right before the election. Now, Virginia House of Delegates Speaker Don Scott is teasing a major redraw early next year.
“10-1 is not out of the realm to be able to draw the maps in a succinct and community-based way,” he said this week. “We’re gonna take a look at it. We have to.”
In Missouri, Democrats are looking to challenge a map the GOP-controlled Legislature passed in September, leaving the state with just one blue district. They face a Thursday deadline to submit over 100,000 signatures that could trigger a referendum and temporarily block the new lines from being implemented, along with a complicated web of legal battles around the referendum process.
The Department of Justice, meanwhile, is going ahead with its lawsuit to challenge California’s new congressional map, even after Attorney General Pam Bondi celebrated the Supreme Court’s decision to greenlight Texas’ newly gerrymandered House map.
But the high court’s blessing of Texas’ Republican-friendly redrawn map came with a few Easter eggs that suggested how some of the other percolating redistricting battles are likely to play out. Most notably, three of the court’s conservative justices — Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch — concluded that California’s redrawn districts were “indisputably” crafted for partisan advantage.
It’s unclear precisely how the justices’ decision will influence the broader national clash over mid-decade redistricting for 2026. Had the justices struck down Texas’ map, it may have increased pressure on other GOP-led states like Indiana and Florida to redraw their own boundaries to help give the party a better chance at retaining the House. On the other hand, the ruling’s clear blessing of mid-decade redistricting for partisan gain could ensure that it becomes a routine weapon in the arsenal of political warfare.
But conservative justices’ signaling on California’s map bodes poorly for the Trump administration, with the DOJ and California Gov. Gavin Newsom trading barbs following the decision.
“So you gonna drop your lawsuit against us right, Pam?” Newsom’s office asked on X Thursday night.
“Not a chance, Gavin — we will stop your DEI districts for 2026,” the Justice Department wrote back.
Adam Wren reported from Indianapolis, and Gregory Svirnovskiy and Kyle Cheney reported from Washington. Andrew Howard contributed to this report.