ALBANY, New York — Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is preparing to enter the race for New York governor as soon as Tuesday, according to two people with direct knowledge of his plans.
Blakeman’s decision to seek the Republican nomination is a major snag in Rep. Elise Stefanik’s efforts to secure GOP backing in her challenge to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is running for a second full term next year.
The looming primary has the makings of a battle royale between two ardent supporters of President Donald Trump — a generational fight pitting an ascendent woman in the Republican Party against a stalwart GOP officeholder who has been on the periphery of the Empire State’s political scene for decades.
Blakeman, who last month won reelection in the suburbs east of New York City, has said Trump has not discouraged him from seeking statewide office. The president offered no preference Monday when reporters asked about Blakeman and Stefanik, appearing to signal that he doesn’t mind them competing.
“He’s great and she’s great,” Trump said at the White House. “They’re both great people.”
Hochul more overtly welcomed the competition.
“If there’s a Republican primary, it makes it much more entertaining for me,” Hochul said about Blakeman’s launch. “Let them go at it. Let’s see how they out-MAGA each other.”
Hochul has reason to be reassured. Republican Lee Zeldin competed in a four-candidate primary in 2022 and eventually came within 6 points of unseating her. Some New York Republicans grumble that Zeldin lost time he could have used to focus on Hochul and was drained of resources as a result.
The people who spoke with POLITICO about Blakeman’s announcement were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. A Blakeman spokesperson declined to comment on the pending launch.
The county executive has downplayed the problems a primary would pose.
“You gotta be sharp. You gotta be on your game if you want to win this,” he said when he was beginning to explore his bid. “There’s not a large margin of error for Republicans. So I think it sharpens both candidates if there is a primary in many circumstances as long as you can keep it from not degrading into namecalling and things of that nature, which I would never do.”
Hochul, who faces her own primary challenge against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, led Stefanik 52 percent to 27 percent in a Siena University poll last month. In their bid to defeat the governor, Republicans plan to leverage New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s ascendance to City Hall — tying the moderate Hochul to the 34-year-old democratic socialist who is unpopular in the suburban counties.
The suburbs will be key to Blakeman’s campaign.
While he’s not well known statewide, the Nassau County executive hails from vote-rich Long Island, which has trended toward Republicans in recent elections. He identifies as a “pro-choice Republican” — a position that stands to complicate his ability to win over GOP voters in a closed party primary. Republicans, though, are hungry to win after being shut out of statewide office in New York for the last 20 years, and a less rigid stance on abortion rights may win over moderate voters.
Blakeman is also a Trump-allied Republican who revels in culture wars and has twice won a purple county where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. Nassau County is home to two critical House battlegrounds, and Republicans are eager to flip the seats held by Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen in an effort to retain the majority in Washington.
“Even before the election, a lot of community leaders, business leaders, political leaders asked me if I would get into the race because they feel that I would have the best chance to beat Kathy Hochul because of my attraction to crossover Democrats and independent voters,” Blakeman said last month after he won reelection.
He has taken a conservative line on trans athletes, masking in public and is eager to have local law enforcement coordinate with federal immigration enforcement efforts.
He also enjoys a warm relationship with The New York Post, the influential conservative tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch. Blakeman this year announced the Post would become the “official newspaper” of Nassau County.
But Blakeman will face an immediate fundraising crunch. Stefanik, an aggressive fundraiser, formally entered the race for governor in November, but she has been effectively a candidate since the summer after Rep. Mike Lawler bowed out to run for reelection in his swing House seat. Stefanik has made early inroads with Republicans statewide, funding an effort to boost the party’s local-level candidates in the November elections.
Trump likely will loom large in the race. Democrats are poised to tether the president to whoever emerges as the GOP nominee. And Trump’s May endorsement of Lawler’s House reelection bid almost certainly influenced the Hudson Valley Republican’s decision to forgo a gubernatorial run. If Trump decides to favor Stefanik or Blakeman, it is almost certain to have an impact on whether one or the other remains in the running.
“I spoke to President Trump on election night. He congratulated me,” Blakeman said in November. “I told him I wanted to sit down and talk to him. And he said he was willing to sit down and talk about it. He didn’t discourage me.”